Virginia 5 House Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that John McGuire III has a 98% chance of winning Virginia 5.

Candidate	Party	Win %
John McGuire III		98%
Gloria Witt		2%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Virginia 5 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Virginia 5

Cook PVI

R+6.6

Last Winner

Republican

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
John McGuire III	$111,646	$990,769	$1,596,476	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Gloria Witt	$74,498	$319,242	$261,219	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

John McGuire III

Cash on hand

$111,646

Raised

$990,769

Spent

$1,596,476

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Gloria Witt

Cash on hand

$74,498

Raised

$319,242

Spent

$261,219

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Virginia 5. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the district. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.