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Alabama Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Alabama.

A Deep South state with a socially conservative history, Alabama was a Democratic stronghold from the founding of the party in the 1820s until the 1960s Civil Rights Movement. Since the 1980s, it has shifted to predominantly Republican, mirroring much of the South. Notably, Alabama has aligned with neighboring Mississippi in nearly every presidential election, diverging only in 1840 when Mississippi supported William Henry Harrison and Alabama backed Martin Van Buren. In 2020, Donald Trump won Alabama by a margin of 25.5%

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

<1%

Chance of winning Alabama over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Alabama

Cook PVI

R+15.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

9

3 polls

Apr 15 – 22

513 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
59.8%

Trump

32.3%

Biden

+28 Trump

Mar 1 – 4

254 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
55.7%

Trump

36.5%

Biden

+19 Trump

Aug 24 – 25

500 RV

WPA Intelligence
57.0%

Trump

32.0%

Biden

+25 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Alabama. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Alabama President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

62.23%

1,441,170

Joe Biden

36.69%

849,624

Jo Jorgensen

1.09%

25,176

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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