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Alaska Presidential Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 94% chance of winning Alaska.

Since joining the Union in 1959, Alaska has consistently voted Republican in every presidential election except for the 1964 landslide win by Lyndon B. Johnson. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by 10%—the narrowest margin for a GOP candidate since 1992 and a decrease from his 15% margin in 2016. Biden achieved the highest percentage of votes for a Democrat since 1964, and it marked only the second time since 1968 that a Democrat has received over 40% of the vote in Alaska, the first being Barack Obama in 2012.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

94%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

6%

Chance of winning Alaska over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Alaska

Cook PVI

R+8.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

3

6 polls

Apr 17 – 24

250 RV

The Independent Cent...
55.0%

Trump

36.0%

Biden

+19 Trump

Apr 15 – 22

248 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
49.7%

Trump

42.8%

Biden

+7 Trump

Mar 1 – 4

95 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
49.5%

Trump

40.1%

Biden

+9 Trump

Feb 24 – Mar 3

1,120 LV

Data for Progress
53.0%

Trump

41.0%

Biden

+12 Trump

Oct 14 – 19

1,375 LV

Alaska Survey Resear...
45.0%

Trump

37.0%

Biden

+8 Trump

Jul 19 – 22

1,336 LV

Alaska Survey Resear...
43.0%

Trump

36.0%

Biden

+7 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Alaska. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Alaska President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

53.12%

189,951

Joe Biden

43.01%

153,778

Jo Jorgensen

2.49%

8,897

Jesse Ventura

0.75%

2,673

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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