Arizona Presidential Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Beginning with Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and ending with Trump in 2016, Republican presidential candidates carried Arizona in 16 out of 17 Presidential elections. However, their dominance began to show cracks at the start of the 21st century, and over the last 24 years, Arizona has increasingly moved toward the political center. This trend culminated in Joe Biden's narrow 2020 victory by just 0.3%, fueled by declining Republican support among college-educated white voters, increased turnout from Latino and Native American voters, and significant population growth and diversification in Maricopa County—the fastest-growing county in the country. Encompassing the Phoenix metro area and containing nearly two-thirds of Arizona's population, Maricopa County saw a Democrat lead the presidential vote for the first time since 1952. Biden's margin in Maricopa was 50.3% to 48.1%, with a raw vote lead of 45,000, enough to overcome the Republican lead in the rest of the state and secure a statewide win by 10,457 votes (49.4% to 49.1%). Arizona is now considered a pivotal battleground state for the 2024 presidential election.