Arkansas Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Arkansas.

Arkansas—a Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt—has shifted markedly toward the Republican Party in the 21st century. No Democrat has won the state's electoral votes since Bill Clinton, an Arkansas Native, in 1996. The last Democratic presidential candidate to come within single digits of carrying Arkansas or even win as much as 40% of the state vote was John Kerry in 2004. In 2016, Trump captured Arkansas by a 27% margin, the largest for any candidate since 1976, until 2020, wherein Trump won 62.4% of the vote compared to Biden's 34.8%, a margin of 27.6%. This marked the seventh consecutive election in which Republicans have increased their margin in Arkansas, the longest such streak in the nation for either party.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Donald Trump		>99%
Kamala Harris		<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Arkansas over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Arkansas

Cook PVI

R+16.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Kamala Harris	$118,825,510	$504,663,253	$880,198,347	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Donald Trump	$36,214,682	$54,519,239	$354,932,583	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Arkansas. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.