| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Joe Biden INCUMBENT | >99% | |
Donald Trump | <1% |
Chance of winning California over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About California
Cook PVI
D+13.0
Last Winner
Democrat
Electoral Votes
54
23 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 24 – Jun 3 | 1,095 LV | Public Policy Instit... | 55.0%Biden 31.0%Trump | +24 Biden |
| Apr 17 – 24 | 250 RV | The Independent Cent... | 59.0%Biden 34.0%Trump | +25 Biden |
| Apr 15 – 22 | 740 LV | John Zogby Strategie... | 55.6%Biden 37.9%Trump | +18 Biden |
| Mar 20 – 26 | 1,089 LV | Public Policy Instit... | 54.0%Biden 31.0%Trump | +23 Biden |
| Mar 1 – 4 | 474 RV | Florida Atlantic Uni... | 54.4%Biden 36.3%Trump | +18 Biden |
| Feb 25 – 28 | 1,000 LV | Emerson College Poll... | 56.5%Biden 35.1%Trump | +21 Biden |
| Feb 23 – 28 | 6,536 LV | Berkeley IGS | 52.0%Biden 34.0%Trump | +18 Biden |
| Feb 23 – 28 | 6,536 RV | UC Berkeley | 52.0%Biden 34.0%Trump | +18 Biden |
| Feb 16 – 18 | 1,000 LV | Emerson College Poll... | 55.0%Biden 33.0%Trump | +22 Biden |
| Feb 7 – 14 | 1,069 LV | Public Policy Instit... | 55.0%Biden 32.0%Trump | +23 Biden |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | $116,565,075 | $2,323,342 | $82,177,202 | May 31, 2024 | |
Joe Biden | $91,566,116 | $89,239,587 | $130,550,039 | May 31, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$116,565,075
Raised
$2,323,342
Spent
$82,177,202
Report
Date
May 31, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$91,566,116
Raised
$89,239,587
Spent
$130,550,039
Report
Date
May 31, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2020 California President | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 63.48% | 11,110,250 |
Donald Trump | 34.32% | 6,006,429 |
Jo Jorgensen | 1.07% | 187,895 |
Howie Hawkins | 0.46% | 81,029 |
2020 California President
Joe Biden
Vote %
63.48%
Total Votes
11,110,250
2020 California President
Donald Trump
Vote %
34.32%
Total Votes
6,006,429
2020 California President
Jo Jorgensen
Vote %
1.07%
Total Votes
187,895
2020 California President
Howie Hawkins
Vote %
0.46%
Total Votes
81,029
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
