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Colorado Presidential Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 88% chance of winning Colorado.

Joe Biden won Colorado in 2020 with over 55% of the vote, achieving a victory margin of 13.5%—an 8.6 percentage point increase from Hillary Clinton's win in 2016. This marked the second-strongest pro-Democrat shift of any state between those elections and was the first time since 1984 that Colorado voted for a presidential candidate of either major party by double digits. Given its competitive history, Colorado is likely to be targeted by both parties in 2024, although it is now widely considered a strongly Democratic-leaning state.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

88%

Donald Trump

12%

Chance of winning Colorado over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Colorado

Cook PVI

D+4.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

10

9 polls

Apr 15 – 22

529 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
48.9%

Biden

42.6%

Trump

+6 Biden

Mar 16 – 20

632 LV

Colorado Polling Ins...
49.0%

Biden

39.0%

Trump

+10 Biden

Mar 1 – 4

186 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
47.6%

Biden

42.6%

Trump

+5 Biden

Jan 24 – 29

1,856 RV

Emerson College Poll...
41.0%

Biden

35.0%

Trump

+6 Biden

Jan 23 – 29

801 RV

Global Strategy Grou...
49.0%

Biden

41.0%

Trump

+8 Biden

Dec 2 – 19

795 Adults

YouGov/University of...
47.0%

Biden

40.0%

Trump

+7 Biden

Nov 27 – 28

652 LV

Cygnal/Aspect Strate...
45.0%

Biden

36.2%

Trump

+9 Biden

Oct 2 – 5

477 Adults

Emerson College Poll...
41.8%

Biden

37.6%

Trump

+4 Biden

May 8 – 10

500 LV

Public Opinion Strat...
49.0%

Biden

39.0%

Trump

+10 Biden

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Colorado. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Colorado President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

55.40%

1,804,352

Donald Trump

41.90%

1,364,607

Jo Jorgensen

1.61%

52,460

Howie Hawkins

0.28%

8,986

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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