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District of Columbia Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a >99% chance of winning District of Columbia.

Since the enactment of the 23rd Amendment in 1961, the District of Columbia, which includes the nation’s capital, Washington D.C., has participated in 15 presidential elections. This amendment limits D.C. to no more electoral votes than the least populous state, resulting in the district consistently receiving three electoral votes in each election. The Democratic Party has demonstrated complete political dominance in the district, winning each of these 15 elections by a margin of no less than 56.5 percentage points. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden captured 92% of the vote, compared to Donald Trump’s 5%.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Joe Biden INCUMBENT		>99%
Donald Trump		<1%

Chance of winning District of Columbia over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About District of Columbia

Cook PVI

D+43.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$116,565,075	$2,323,342	$82,177,202	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 31, 2024
Joe Biden	$91,566,116	$89,239,587	$130,550,039	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 31, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for District of Columbia. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.