| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 78% | |
Joe Biden INCUMBENT | 22% |
Chance of winning Florida over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About Florida
Cook PVI
R+3.0
Last Winner
Republican
Electoral Votes
30
19 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9 – 10 | 883 RV | Florida Atlantic Uni... | 46.0%Trump 42.0%Biden | +4 Trump |
| Jun 7 – 10 | 1,050 LV | The Tyson Group | 46.0%Trump 36.0%Biden | +10 Trump |
| Jun 2 – 5 | 1,075 RV | Beacon Research/Shaw... | 50.0%Trump 46.0%Biden | +4 Trump |
| May 11 – 17 | 1,181 LV | YouGov/CBS News | 54.0%Trump 45.0%Biden | +9 Trump |
| May 10 – 17 | 486 RV | Prime Group/Citizens... | 53.0%Trump 47.0%Biden | +6 Trump |
| Apr 29 – May 8 | 609 RV | Florida Chamber of C... | 51.0%Trump 42.0%Biden | +9 Trump |
| Apr 15 – 22 | 749 LV | John Zogby Strategie... | 51.2%Trump 42.2%Biden | +9 Trump |
| Apr 16 – 18 | 815 LV | Florida Atlantic Uni... | 51.3%Trump 42.7%Biden | +9 Trump |
| Apr 10 – 11 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 56.4%Trump 43.6%Biden | +13 Trump |
| Mar 12 – 14 | 1,963 LV | St. Pete Polls/WMNF ... | 48.0%Trump 42.0%Biden | +6 Trump |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | $116,565,075 | $2,323,342 | $82,177,202 | May 31, 2024 | |
Joe Biden | $91,566,116 | $89,239,587 | $130,550,039 | May 31, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$116,565,075
Raised
$2,323,342
Spent
$82,177,202
Report
Date
May 31, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$91,566,116
Raised
$89,239,587
Spent
$130,550,039
Report
Date
May 31, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Florida. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2020 Florida President | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | 51.22% | 5,668,731 |
Joe Biden | 47.86% | 5,297,045 |
Jo Jorgensen | 0.64% | 70,324 |
Howie Hawkins | 0.13% | 14,721 |
2020 Florida President
Donald Trump
Vote %
51.22%
Total Votes
5,668,731
2020 Florida President
Joe Biden
Vote %
47.86%
Total Votes
5,297,045
2020 Florida President
Jo Jorgensen
Vote %
0.64%
Total Votes
70,324
2020 Florida President
Howie Hawkins
Vote %
0.13%
Total Votes
14,721
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
