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Georgia Presidential Forecast tossup POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 12:43 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 63% chance of winning Georgia.

Located in the conservative Bible Belt and Deep South regions, Georgia has transitioned from a reliably red state in the late 20th and early 21st centuries to a competitive battleground in the early 2020s. This shift is largely due to rapid population growth in the progressive and diverse Atlanta metro area, which contains a significant portion of the state's population. Throughout the 21st century, this area has seen a substantial influx of African Americans, Asian Americans, Latinos, and White voters from left-leaning areas of the country, balancing the scales against Georgia’s Republican-dominant rural areas. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won Georgia by 0.23%, making it the closest state in that election. Biden's victory marked the first time a Democrat won the state's electoral votes since Bill Clinton in 1992 and the first non-Southern Democrat to do so since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Georgia is expected to be a pivotal battleground in the 2024 election.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

63%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

37%

Chance of winning Georgia over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Georgia

Cook PVI

R+3.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

16

39 polls

Jun 14 – 19

1,000 RV

Emerson College Poll...
52.3%

Trump

47.7%

Biden

+5 Trump

May 31 – Jun 4

1,203 RV

Quinnipiac Universit...
49.0%

Trump

44.0%

Biden

+5 Trump

May 10 – 17

470 RV

Prime Group/Citizens...
51.0%

Trump

49.0%

Biden

+2 Trump

May 7 – 14

600 LV

BSG/GS Strategy Grou...
47.0%

Trump

44.0%

Biden

+3 Trump

May 9 – 13

795 RV

Morning Consult/Bloo...
47.0%

Trump

44.0%

Biden

+3 Trump

Apr 29 – May 10

604 RV

Siena College Poll/N...
49.0%

Trump

39.0%

Biden

+10 Trump

May 2 – 6

600 LV

North Star Opinion R...
49.0%

Trump

39.0%

Biden

+10 Trump

Apr 26 – 30

1,000 RV

Emerson College Poll...
50.8%

Trump

49.2%

Biden

+2 Trump

Apr 15 – 22

635 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
46.5%

Trump

43.9%

Biden

+3 Trump

Apr 12 – 17

1,128 RV

Beacon Research/Shaw...
51.0%

Trump

45.0%

Biden

+6 Trump

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Georgia. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Georgia President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

49.47%

2,473,633

Donald Trump

49.24%

2,461,854

Jo Jorgensen

1.24%

62,229

Howie Hawkins

0.02%

1,013

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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