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Illinois Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 96% chance of winning Illinois.

A stronghold for Democrats in the Great Lakes region, Illinois has consistently favored the Democratic presidential candidate by double digits in every election since 1992, including for favorite son Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. Joe Biden also won Illinois by a comfortable margin, capturing 58% of the vote to Trump's 41%, maintaining a similar 17-point margin as Clinton did in 2016. For the first time since 1868, Illinois will award fewer than 20 electoral votes, a change resulting from the 2020 United States census reapportionment.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

96%

Donald Trump

4%

Chance of winning Illinois over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Illinois

Cook PVI

D+7.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

19

3 polls

Apr 15 – 22

643 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
52.9%

Biden

40.2%

Trump

+13 Biden

Oct 2 – 5

468 RV

Emerson College Poll...
43.0%

Biden

34.0%

Trump

+9 Biden

Aug 25 – 28

811 RV

Cor Strategies
55.0%

Biden

35.0%

Trump

+20 Biden

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Illinois. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Illinois President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

57.54%

3,471,915

Donald Trump

40.55%

2,446,891

Jo Jorgensen

1.10%

66,544

Howie Hawkins

0.51%

30,494

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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