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Illinois Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 98% chance of winning Illinois.

A stronghold for Democrats in the Great Lakes region, Illinois has consistently favored the Democratic presidential candidate by double digits in every election since 1992, including for favorite son Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Chicago-born Hillary Clinton in 2016. Joe Biden also won Illinois by a comfortable margin, capturing 58% of the vote to Trump's 41%, maintaining a similar 17-point margin as Clinton did in 2016. For the first time since 1868, Illinois will award fewer than 20 electoral votes, a change resulting from the 2020 United States census reapportionment.

CandidatePartyWin %

Kamala Harris

98%

Donald Trump

2%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Illinois over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Illinois

Cook PVI

D+7.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

19

3 polls

Oct 5 – 29

400 LV

ActiVote
58.4%

Harris

41.6%

Trump

+17 Harris

Sep 4 – Oct 6

400 LV

ActiVote
58.8%

Harris

41.2%

Trump

+18 Harris

Aug 7 – 30

400 LV

ActiVote
57.8%

Harris

42.2%

Trump

+16 Harris

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Illinois. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Illinois President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

57.54%

3,471,915

Donald Trump

40.55%

2,446,891

Jo Jorgensen

1.10%

66,544

Howie Hawkins

0.51%

30,494

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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