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Indiana Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 98% chance of winning Indiana.

Indiana is known as the most conservative state in the Great Lakes region. Its southern part, culturally aligned with the Upper South and the Bible Belt, has seen Republicans win the state in every presidential election since 1968, except for a narrow victory in 2008 by Democrat Barack Obama (with Joe Biden on the ticket). Trump won Indiana by 16% in 2020, with 57% to Biden's 41%, a slight increase in his vote share from 2016, but a reduction in his margin of victory. As a strongly red state, Indiana is expected to go safely to the GOP in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

98%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

2%

Chance of winning Indiana over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Indiana

Cook PVI

R+11.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

11

3 polls

Apr 15 – 22

418 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
47.2%

Trump

43.1%

Biden

+4 Trump

Mar 3 – 6

1,000 RV

Emerson College Poll...
54.8%

Trump

33.6%

Biden

+21 Trump

Oct 2 – 5

462 Adults

Emerson College Poll...
48.0%

Trump

29.0%

Biden

+19 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Indiana. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Indiana President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

57.02%

1,729,519

Joe Biden

40.96%

1,242,416

Jo Jorgensen

1.95%

59,232

Howie Hawkins

0.03%

989

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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