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Iowa Presidential Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 90% chance of winning Iowa.

Prior to 2016, Iowa voted Democratic in six of the previous seven elections, with the only exception being George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. However, Iowa swung dramatically in favor of Donald Trump in 2016 by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, marking a shift of over ten points to the right compared to the national average. This trend continued in 2020; although Biden contested the state, Trump maintained a strong lead with an 8.2% margin, even as his national margin of defeat increased by 2.4%. With these shifts, Iowa is considered a solidly Republican state heading into 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

90%

Kamala Harris

10%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Iowa over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Iowa

Cook PVI

R+6.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

6

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Iowa. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Iowa President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

53.23%

897,672

Joe Biden

45.01%

759,061

Jo Jorgensen

1.16%

19,637

Kanye West

0.19%

3,210

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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