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Maine Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 95% chance of winning Maine.

Unlike every other state but Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote and one for each congressional district. The at-large statewide votes, while often closely contested by both parties, have consistently favored the Democratic presidential candidate since 1988. Joe Biden expanded the Democratic margin in Maine, winning the statewide popular vote by 9% in 2020, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 3% in 2016. Despite Maine’s Democratic-leaning status in 2024, the congressional districts are expected to split between Democratic and Republican candidates, as they did in both 2016 and 2020.

CandidatePartyWin %

Kamala Harris

95%

Donald Trump

5%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Maine over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Maine

Cook PVI

D+2.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

2

2 polls

Aug 16 – 20

912 LV

University of New Ha...
58.0%

Harris

41.0%

Trump

+17 Harris

Jul 24 – 26

1,350 LV

Pine Tree State Poll...
54.0%

Harris

45.0%

Trump

+9 Harris

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Maine. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Maine President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

53.10%

435,072

Donald Trump

44.03%

360,737

Jo Jorgensen

1.73%

14,152

Howie Hawkins

1.00%

8,230

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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