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Maine 1 Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a >99% chance of winning Maine 1.

Maine allocates its four electoral votes by awarding two to the statewide winner and one to the candidate who receives the most votes in each of its two congressional districts. The 1st congressional district, smaller and more urban, covers the southern coastal regions of the state. This district aligns closely with the predominantly Democratic New England and has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+8. It has consistently voted for Democratic House candidates in the last 14 elections, supported Joe Biden by 23% in 2020, and has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Joe Biden INCUMBENT		>99%
Donald Trump		<1%

Chance of winning Maine 1 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Maine 1

Cook PVI

D+8.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$116,565,075	$2,323,342	$82,177,202	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 31, 2024
Joe Biden	$91,566,116	$89,239,587	$130,550,039	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 31, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Maine 1. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.