Maine 2 Presidential Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 87% chance of winning Maine 2.

Maine allocates its four electoral votes by awarding two to the statewide winner and one to the candidate who receives the most votes in each of its two congressional districts. The 2nd Congressional District, covering nearly 80% of Maine's total land area, is the largest district east of the Mississippi River and the 24th largest in the U.S. It is also the second-most rural district in the country, with 72% of its population in rural areas, and it has the second-highest proportion of non-Hispanic White residents at 94%; only Kentucky's 5th Congressional District exceeds it in these two categories. These demographic factors make the district significantly more Republican-friendly than the more urban and liberal-leaning 1st district. With a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+4, Donald Trump won Maine's 2nd district by 10% in 2016, becoming the first Republican to do so since George H. W. Bush in 1988. He then carried the district again in 2020 by 7%.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Donald Trump		87%
Kamala Harris		13%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Maine 2 over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Maine 2

Cook PVI

R+4.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Kamala Harris	$118,825,510	$504,663,253	$880,198,347	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Donald Trump	$36,214,682	$54,519,239	$354,932,583	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Maine 2. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.