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Massachusetts Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a >99% chance of winning Massachusetts.

Massachusetts has been a Democratic-leaning state since 1928 and became a Democratic stronghold starting in 1960. It remains a deeply blue state today. Ronald Reagan, in 1980 and 1984, is the only Republican to have carried Massachusetts since then. Joe Biden won Massachusetts with a 33-point margin in 2020, the largest since 1964. Notably, Massachusetts was one of only three states, alongside Rhode Island and Hawaii, where Biden won every county.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

>99%

Donald Trump

<1%

Chance of winning Massachusetts over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Massachusetts

Cook PVI

D+15.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

11

3 polls

May 17 – 21

453 LV

University of New Ha...
68.0%

Biden

32.0%

Trump

+36 Biden

Apr 15 – 22

534 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
55.2%

Biden

35.8%

Trump

+19 Biden

Mar 1 – 4

338 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
57.8%

Biden

33.5%

Trump

+24 Biden

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Massachusetts. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Massachusetts President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

65.90%

2,382,202

Donald Trump

32.29%

1,167,202

Jo Jorgensen

1.30%

47,013

Howie Hawkins

0.52%

18,658

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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