Nebraska 2 Presidential Forecast lean dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Nebraska allocates its five electoral votes by awarding two to the statewide winner and one to the candidate who receives the most votes in each of its three congressional districts. The 2nd district, which encompasses the core of the Omaha–Council Bluffs metropolitan area, includes all of Douglas County—home to Omaha, the state's largest city—as well as Saunders County and parts of western Sarpy County. With a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+1, it is the most competitive district in Nebraska. Known as a swing district starting in the 2010s, it was one of two districts with a margin of less than 5% in all elections held after the 2010 census. Barack Obama targeted the district in 2008 as part of a strategy to break a potential electoral-vote tie, winning the district’s electoral vote by 1.2% over Republican John McCain, who won the state's other four electoral votes. This victory marked the first time Nebraska’s electoral delegation was split and the first Nebraskan electoral vote for a Democrat since 1964. Although Obama did not retain the district in 2012 and Hillary Clinton lost to Trump by 2% in 2016, Joe Biden managed to flip it back to the Democratic side by 6.6% in 2020. This shift is primarily due to recent population growth in the Omaha metro area and increasing Democratic strength among voters with a college degree, a category in which Nebraska’s 2nd district ranks second among all U.S. states. There is an ongoing push by some Republicans, supported by Donald Trump, Governor Jim Pillen, and 2nd District Congressman Don Bacon, to change Nebraska’s split electoral college vote system to a winner-takes-all format. The 2nd district is considered a key battleground in 2024 and could again hold a tie-breaking vote in an electoral college tie.