Nevada Presidential Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Nevada is considered a crucial swing state in 2024, even as no Republican presidential nominee has won the state since George W. Bush’s narrow victory in 2004. Joe Biden’s 2.39% win four years ago was nearly identical to Hillary Clinton’s 2.42% win in 2016. However, considering that the national popular vote shifted toward Democrats between those elections, Nevada effectively trended nearly two and a half points to the right relative to the national average. Although most of Nevada's counties are rural and supported Trump in 2020, Biden captured the two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, which together account for almost 89% of the state's population. Nevada ranks 44th in educational attainment—the lowest of any state Biden won—and has moved almost five points rightward since the 2012 election. More recently, the GOP flipped the Governor's office in 2022 and narrowly missed unseating a popular Democratic incumbent Senator. Additionally, for the first time in decades, Republicans won the statewide House popular vote during those midterms. Historically, every election that resulted in a change of presidential party included the winning candidate flipping at least one state; based on these trends, Nevada is the likeliest candidate in 2024.