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New Jersey Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 98% chance of winning New Jersey.

As a densely populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has supported the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992, consistently by double digits since 2008. In 2020, the state favored Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware with a margin of 57% to 41%. It is predicted to comfortably go blue again in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Kamala Harris

98%

Donald Trump

2%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning New Jersey over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About New Jersey

Cook PVI

D+6.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

14

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Jersey. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 New Jersey President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

57.33%

2,608,335

Donald Trump

41.40%

1,883,274

Jo Jorgensen

0.70%

31,677

Howie Hawkins

0.31%

14,202

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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