| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Joe Biden INCUMBENT | 85% | |
Donald Trump | 15% |
Chance of winning New Mexico over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About New Mexico
Cook PVI
D+3.0
Last Winner
Democrat
Electoral Votes
5
5 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14 – 15 | 555 RV | Public Policy Pollin... | 48.0%Biden 41.0%Trump | +7 Biden |
| Apr 15 – 22 | 505 LV | John Zogby Strategie... | 48.6%Biden 41.7%Trump | +7 Biden |
| Sep 15 – 19 | 1,367 LV | coefficient | 42.0%Trump 40.0%Biden | +2 Trump |
| Aug 24 – 25 | 767 RV | Public Policy Pollin... | 49.0%Biden 41.0%Trump | +8 Biden |
| May 7 – 9 | 500 LV | Public Opinion Strat... | 49.0%Biden 38.0%Trump | +11 Biden |
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump | $116,565,075 | $2,323,342 | $82,177,202 | May 31, 2024 | |
Joe Biden | $91,566,116 | $89,239,587 | $130,550,039 | May 31, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$116,565,075
Raised
$2,323,342
Spent
$82,177,202
Report
Date
May 31, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$91,566,116
Raised
$89,239,587
Spent
$130,550,039
Report
Date
May 31, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Mexico. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2020 New Mexico President | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 54.29% | 501,614 |
Donald Trump | 43.50% | 401,894 |
Jo Jorgensen | 1.36% | 12,585 |
Howie Hawkins | 0.48% | 4,426 |
2020 New Mexico President
Joe Biden
Vote %
54.29%
Total Votes
501,614
2020 New Mexico President
Donald Trump
Vote %
43.50%
Total Votes
401,894
2020 New Mexico President
Jo Jorgensen
Vote %
1.36%
Total Votes
12,585
2020 New Mexico President
Howie Hawkins
Vote %
0.48%
Total Votes
4,426
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
