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North Dakota Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning North Dakota.

A sparsely-populated Great Plains state with an almost-exclusively White populace, North Dakota has not been won by a Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide and has only been decided by single digits in three presidential elections since then. Trump carried North Dakota by 33% in 2020 and is widely expected to win the state again in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Kamala Harris

<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning North Dakota over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About North Dakota

Cook PVI

R+20.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

3

2 polls

Sep 29 – Oct 1

500 LV

WPA Intelligence/Nor...
59.0%

Trump

32.0%

Harris

+27 Trump

Sep 24 – 27

500 LV

Lake Research Partne...
50.0%

Trump

40.0%

Harris

+10 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for North Dakota. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 North Dakota President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

65.46%

235,595

Joe Biden

31.93%

114,902

Jo Jorgensen

2.61%

9,393

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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