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Oklahoma Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Oklahoma.

Located at the western edge of the Bible Belt, Oklahoma is a staunchly red state that has not supported a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson of neighboring Texas won in 1964. The state was somewhat competitive during the national campaigns of former Southern governors Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, but has otherwise shown a strong preference for Republican candidates. Since George W. Bush's 2004 campaign, Republican presidential nominees have consistently won every county in Oklahoma. The state is expected to remain solidly in the GOP's column for the 2024 election.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

<1%

Chance of winning Oklahoma over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Oklahoma

Cook PVI

R+20.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

7

4 polls

Apr 15 – 22

391 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
52.9%

Trump

39.8%

Biden

+13 Trump

Apr 12 – 13

615 LV

Cygnal
61.0%

Trump

30.0%

Biden

+31 Trump

Mar 1 – 4

70 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
57.5%

Trump

33.1%

Biden

+24 Trump

Oct 2 – 4

447 RV

Emerson College Poll...
55.0%

Trump

27.0%

Biden

+28 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Oklahoma. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Oklahoma President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

65.37%

1,020,280

Joe Biden

32.29%

503,890

Jo Jorgensen

1.58%

24,731

Kanye West

0.36%

5,597

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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