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Oregon Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Kamala Harris has a 96% chance of winning Oregon.

Joe Biden secured Oregon with a 16% margin in 2020, improving on Hillary Clinton's 11% victory in 2016. The last Republican to win Oregon was Ronald Reagan, from neighboring California, in 1984.

CandidatePartyWin %

Kamala Harris

96%

Donald Trump

4%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Oregon over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Oregon

Cook PVI

D+6.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

8

2 polls

Oct 17 – 18

716 LV

Public Policy Pollin...
53.0%

Harris

41.0%

Trump

+12 Harris

Jul 25 – 27

700 LV

Hoffman Research Gro...
49.0%

Harris

44.0%

Trump

+5 Harris

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Oregon. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Oregon President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

56.86%

1,340,383

Donald Trump

40.66%

958,448

Jo Jorgensen

1.76%

41,582

Howie Hawkins

0.50%

11,831

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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