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Oregon Presidential Forecast likely dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a 93% chance of winning Oregon.

Joe Biden secured Oregon with a 16% margin in 2020, improving on Hillary Clinton's 11% victory in 2016. The last Republican to win Oregon was Ronald Reagan, from neighboring California, in 1984.

CandidatePartyWin %

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

93%

Donald Trump

7%

Chance of winning Oregon over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Oregon

Cook PVI

D+6.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

8

3 polls

Apr 17 – 24

250 RV

The Independent Cent...
52.0%

Biden

40.0%

Trump

+12 Biden

Apr 15 – 22

419 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
47.4%

Biden

43.5%

Trump

+4 Biden

Apr 14 – 17

246 LV

Civiqs/Northwest Pro...
54.0%

Biden

34.0%

Trump

+20 Biden

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Oregon. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Oregon President Vote %Total Votes

Joe Biden

56.86%

1,340,383

Donald Trump

40.66%

958,448

Jo Jorgensen

1.76%

41,582

Howie Hawkins

0.50%

11,831

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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