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South Carolina Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 97% chance of winning South Carolina.

Although not as right-leaning as other Deep South states, except for its newly competitive neighbor Georgia, South Carolina maintains a conservative voting pattern and is considered a strongly red state at both the federal and state levels. The only Democratic presidential candidate to win the state since JFK in 1960 was Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump carried South Carolina by 11.7% in 2020, down from his 14.3% margin in 2016. Nonetheless, the state is expected to vote Republican in 2024, as it has in every election since 1980.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

97%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

3%

Chance of winning South Carolina over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About South Carolina

Cook PVI

R+8.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

9

5 polls

Apr 15 – 22

501 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
52.4%

Trump

40.2%

Biden

+12 Trump

Feb 16 – 18

1,197 LV

Emerson College Poll...
51.0%

Trump

37.0%

Biden

+14 Trump

Feb 6 – 12

1,000 RV

The Citadel Poll
54.0%

Trump

35.0%

Biden

+19 Trump

Feb 3 – 11

1,717 RV

Winthrop University
50.0%

Trump

35.0%

Biden

+15 Trump

Feb 2 – 9

706 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
52.0%

Trump

34.0%

Biden

+18 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for South Carolina. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 South Carolina President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

55.11%

1,385,103

Joe Biden

43.43%

1,091,541

Jo Jorgensen

1.11%

27,916

Howie Hawkins

0.27%

6,907

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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