Sponsored content

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Logo

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

No results found

Tennessee Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Tennessee.

A Southern state entirely within the Bible Belt, Tennessee has not awarded its electoral votes to a Democrat since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with the state's "favorite son" Al Gore, won in 1996. It has not been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. Tennessee is expected to go safely for the GOP candidate in 2024, as it did for Trump by 23% in 2020.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Kamala Harris

<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Tennessee over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Tennessee

Cook PVI

R+14.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

11

3 polls

Oct 6 – 29

400 LV

ActiVote
61.7%

Trump

38.3%

Harris

+23 Trump

Sep 25 – Oct 17

400 LV

ActiVote
62.4%

Trump

37.6%

Harris

+25 Trump

Jul 27 – Aug 30

400 LV

ActiVote
63.1%

Trump

36.9%

Harris

+26 Trump

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Tennessee. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Tennessee President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

60.66%

1,852,475

Joe Biden

37.45%

1,143,711

Jo Jorgensen

0.98%

29,877

Kanye West

0.34%

10,279

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

Related Stories