Sponsored content

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Logo

Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

No results found

Utah Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Utah.

Owing largely to its conservative Mormon majority, Utah has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, the GOP margin of victory has been lower than usual in the past two elections due to a considerable share of third-party votes statewide and growing Democratic trends in Salt Lake and Summit Counties. In 2020, Trump won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, which, although an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, is still relatively narrow compared to past Republican nominees. Nevertheless, Trump is expected to win Utah comfortably in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Kamala Harris

<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Utah over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Utah

Cook PVI

R+13.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

6

4 polls

Oct 8 – 31

400 LV

ActiVote
60.0%

Trump

40.0%

Harris

+20 Trump

Oct 3 – 8

600 RV

Noble Predictive Ins...
52.0%

Trump

39.0%

Harris

+13 Trump

Sep 28 – 29

612 LV

Public Policy Pollin...
54.0%

Trump

39.0%

Harris

+15 Trump

+ More Polls

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Kamala Harris

Cash on hand

$118,825,510

Raised

$504,663,253

Spent

$880,198,347

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$36,214,682

Raised

$54,519,239

Spent

$354,932,583

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Utah. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Utah President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

58.13%

865,140

Joe Biden

37.65%

560,282

Jo Jorgensen

2.58%

38,447

Kanye West

0.48%

7,213

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

Related Stories