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Utah Presidential Forecast safe gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a >99% chance of winning Utah.

Owing largely to its conservative Mormon majority, Utah has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, the GOP margin of victory has been lower than usual in the past two elections due to a considerable share of third-party votes statewide and growing Democratic trends in Salt Lake and Summit Counties. In 2020, Trump won Utah with 58.1% of the vote and a margin of 20.5%, which, although an improvement on his 18.1% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, is still relatively narrow compared to past Republican nominees. Nevertheless, Trump is expected to win Utah comfortably in 2024.

CandidatePartyWin %

Donald Trump

>99%

Joe Biden

INCUMBENT

<1%

Chance of winning Utah over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Utah

Cook PVI

R+13.0

Last Winner

Republican

Electoral Votes

6

5 polls

Jun 5 – 8

857 RV

HarrisX/Deseret News...
57.0%

Trump

25.0%

Biden

+32 Trump

Apr 15 – 22

414 LV

John Zogby Strategie...
45.7%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

+3 Trump

Apr 9 – 17

600 RV

Noble Predictive Ins...
54.0%

Trump

26.0%

Biden

+28 Trump

Mar 1 – 4

268 RV

Florida Atlantic Uni...
46.3%

Trump

37.0%

Biden

+9 Trump

Jan 17 – 22

801 RV

Dan Jones & Associat...
43.0%

Trump

33.0%

Biden

+10 Trump

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Utah. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2020 Utah President Vote %Total Votes

Donald Trump

58.13%

865,140

Joe Biden

37.65%

560,282

Jo Jorgensen

2.58%

38,447

Kanye West

0.48%

7,213

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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