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Vermont Presidential Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Joe Biden has a >99% chance of winning Vermont.

The bluest state in the nation in 2020, Vermont is located in Democrat-dominated New England. Historically, it was a moderate Republican stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election from the party's formation until George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988. However, an influx of more liberal, well-educated voters from other highly populated Northeast states has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s. The state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992, with all these victories being by double digits, apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000. Today, as one of the most progressive states in the U.S., Vermont is strongly blue and is favored to remain comfortably in the Democratic column in 2024.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Joe Biden INCUMBENT		>99%
Donald Trump		<1%

Chance of winning Vermont over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Vermont

Cook PVI

D+16.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Electoral Votes

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Donald Trump	$116,565,075	$2,323,342	$82,177,202	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 31, 2024
Joe Biden	$91,566,116	$89,239,587	$130,550,039	APRIL QUARTERLY	May 31, 2024

Candidate

Donald Trump

Cash on hand

$116,565,075

Raised

$2,323,342

Spent

$82,177,202

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 31, 2024

Candidate

Joe Biden

Cash on hand

$91,566,116

Raised

$89,239,587

Spent

$130,550,039

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

May 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Vermont. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.