Chance of winning undefined Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.