| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Adam Schiff | >99% | |
Steve Garvey | <1% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning California Senate over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About California
Cook PVI
D+13.0
Last Winner
Democrat
19 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 – 4 | 431 LV | Research Co. | 62.0%Schiff 38.0%Garvey | +24 Schiff |
| Oct 28 – 31 | 611 LV | Cygnal | 60.0%Schiff 35.8%Garvey | +24 Schiff |
| Oct 23 – 30 | 4,341 LV | Berkeley IGS/LA Time... | 55.0%Schiff 34.0%Garvey | +21 Schiff |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Schiff | $7,705,276 | $43,251,853 | $59,416,098 | October 16, 2024 | |
Steve Garvey | $1,114,237 | $18,056,465 | $17,047,488 | October 16, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$7,705,276
Raised
$43,251,853
Spent
$59,416,098
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$1,114,237
Raised
$18,056,465
Spent
$17,047,488
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2022 California Senate | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Alex Padilla | 30.63% | 6,621,616 |
Alex Padilla | 30.35% | 6,559,303 |
Mark P. Meuser | 19.53% | 4,222,025 |
Mark P. Meuser | 19.49% | 4,212,446 |
2022 California Senate
Alex Padilla
Vote %
30.63%
Total Votes
6,621,616
2022 California Senate
Alex Padilla
Vote %
30.35%
Total Votes
6,559,303
2022 California Senate
Mark P. Meuser
Vote %
19.53%
Total Votes
4,222,025
2022 California Senate
Mark P. Meuser
Vote %
19.49%
Total Votes
4,212,446
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
