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California Senate Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Adam Schiff has a >99% chance of winning California.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Adam Schiff		>99%
Steve Garvey		<1%

Chance of winning California Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About California

Cook PVI

D+13.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Adam Schiff	$4,820,824	$33,121,316	$51,348,262	APRIL QUARTERLY	March 31, 2024
Steve Garvey	$1,606,583	$5,500,067	$3,921,777	APRIL QUARTERLY	March 31, 2024

Candidate

Adam Schiff

Cash on hand

$4,820,824

Raised

$33,121,316

Spent

$51,348,262

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Steve Garvey

Cash on hand

$1,606,583

Raised

$5,500,067

Spent

$3,921,777

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for California. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.