Florida Senate Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Incumbent first-term Republican Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election after narrowly defeating then-incumbent Democrat Senator Bill Nelson in 2018 by just 0.12%, a raw vote margin of 10,033 out of more than 8.19 million cast. Scott is expected to face former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who has historically underperformed in elections. Florida, long considered one of the core swing states, has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Donald Trump carried Florida by 3.4% in the 2020 presidential election, increasing his margin from 2016 by 2.4%; this was the largest margin in a Florida presidential election since 2004. This trend is largely attributed to increased Republican support among Latino voters, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which Biden carried by 7%, significantly less than Clinton's 29% in 2016 and Obama's 24% margin in 2012. Further erosion in Democratic support among this key demographic group helped Republicans achieve a localized red wave in 2022, notably re-electing GOP incumbents in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections by 19% and 16%, respectively. As of 2024, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, hold supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.