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Hawaii Senate Forecast safe dem

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Mazie Hirono has a >99% chance of winning Hawaii.

CandidatePartyWin %

Mazie Hirono

INCUMBENT

>99%

Adriel Lam

<1%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Hawaii Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Hawaii

Cook PVI

D+14.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Mazie Hirono

Cash on hand

$2,337,434

Raised

$1,662,609

Spent

$1,208,447

Date

July 21, 2024

Candidate

Adriel Lam

Cash on hand

$4,360

Raised

$10,145

Spent

$15,900

Date

July 21, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Hawaii. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 Hawaii Senate Vote %Total Votes

Brian Schatz

71.21%

290,894

Bob McDermott

26.04%

106,358

Feena M. Bonoan

1.20%

4,915

Emma Jane A. Pohlman

1.01%

4,142

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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