Michigan Senate Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Incumbent Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow is retiring, setting the stage for Michigan's first open Senate race for this seat since 1994, which was also the only time Republicans won a Michigan U.S. Senate race since 1972. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, known for outperforming in her previous House elections, is the heavy favorite to secure the Democratic nomination. She is likely to face former Congressman Mike Rogers, who has received Donald Trump's endorsement in the Republican primary. Michigan, a swing state, is considered to be purple to slightly blue at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying it by 2.8% in the 2020 presidential election after Donald Trump narrowly won by 0.2% in 2016—the first Republican presidential victory in Michigan since 1988. However, Democrats have enjoyed more success in recent years, currently controlling both U.S. Senate seats, seven of 13 U.S. House seats, holding a minimum majority in both houses of the Michigan Legislature, and all statewide offices. Given the state's nearly even partisan lean and the absence of an incumbent, this race is expected to be highly competitive.