| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Tim Sheehy | 81% | |
Jon Tester INCUMBENT | 19% |
Chance of winning Montana Senate over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About Montana
Cook PVI
R+11.0
Last Winner
Democrat
7 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12 – 14 | 500 LV | Public Opinion Strat... | 46.0%Tester 46.0%Sheehy | TIE |
| Jun 4 – 6 | 500 LV | Fabrizio, Lee & Asso... | 48.0%Tester 48.0%Sheehy | TIE |
| Mar 27 – 30 | 503 LV | J.L. Partners | 48.0%Sheehy 45.0%Tester | +3 Sheehy |
| Feb 27 – Mar 3 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 44.0%Tester 42.4%Sheehy | +2 Tester |
| Feb 13 – 16 | 700 Adults | SurveyUSA | 50.0%Tester 40.0%Sheehy | +10 Tester |
| Oct 2 – 5 | 447 Adults | Emerson College Poll... | 39.0%Tester 35.0%Sheehy | +4 Tester |
| Aug 13 – 18 | 741 LV | J.L. Partners | 46.0%Sheehy 43.0%Tester | +3 Sheehy |
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jon Tester | $11,793,381 | $28,235,359 | $23,925,592 | May 15, 2024 | |
Tim Sheehy | $2,427,732 | $6,605,902 | $8,347,783 | May 15, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$11,793,381
Raised
$28,235,359
Spent
$23,925,592
Report
Date
May 15, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$2,427,732
Raised
$6,605,902
Spent
$8,347,783
Report
Date
May 15, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Montana. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2020 Montana Senate | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Steve Daines | 55.01% | 333,174 |
Steve Bullock | 44.99% | 272,463 |
2020 Montana Senate
Steve Daines
Vote %
55.01%
Total Votes
333,174
2020 Montana Senate
Steve Bullock
Vote %
44.99%
Total Votes
272,463
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
