Montana Senate Forecast likely gop POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in ruby red Montana. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the others being Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered crucial for the Democrats' chances to retain their Senate majority in 2024. He will likely face Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy Seal turned aerospace CEO, who has received endorsements from Donald Trump and most major local and national Republican officials. Montana has consistently voted for Republican presidential candidates since 1996, with GOP candidates winning by double digits in all but the 2008 election. As of May 2024, Republicans control both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, both houses of the state legislature, and the governorship. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Montana by 16.5%. Despite the state's strong Republican lean, Tester remains popular among his constituents, keeping the race competitive. He outran Barack Obama by 17% in 2012 and will likely need to outperform Biden by at least that margin in 2024.