Nebraska Senate Forecast likely gop

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Deb Fischer has a 81% chance of winning Nebraska.

Dan Osborn is classified as a Democrat in our model, even though he is running as an independent. This classification stems primarily from his campaign’s reliance on mechanisms and strategies associated with the Democratic Party. For instance, he uses ActBlue for fundraising and has engaged with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. In this solid red state, the otherwise dormant Democratic Party has nearly unanimously supported his challenge to Republican dominance. Our Senate model assumes Osborn will caucus with the Democrats if elected. This assumption is a key factor in the math that determines the fight for a majority in the US Senate.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Deb Fischer INCUMBENT		81%
Dan Osborn		19%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning Nebraska Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About Nebraska

Cook PVI

R+13.0

Last Winner

Republican

View Polling Average

Nebraska Senate polls, Fischer vs. Osborn

19 polls

Field Dates	Sample	Pollster	Results	Topline
Oct 31 – Nov 1	600 LV	Change Research/Dan ...	47.0% Fischer 47.0% Osborn	TIE
Oct 26 – 29	605 LV	Torchlight Strategie...	50.6% Fischer 43.1% Osborn	+8 Fischer
Oct 22 – 29	1,202 LV	YouGov/The Economist	50.0% Fischer 43.0% Osborn	+7 Fischer

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Dan Osborn	$1,135,562	$7,808,605	$6,827,049	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024
Deb Fischer	$582,814	$2,356,350	$6,678,160	OCTOBER QUARTERLY	October 16, 2024

Candidate

Dan Osborn

Cash on hand

$1,135,562

Raised

$7,808,605

Spent

$6,827,049

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Deb Fischer

Cash on hand

$582,814

Raised

$2,356,350

Spent

$6,678,160

Report

OCTOBER QUARTERLY

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Nebraska. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.