| Candidate | Party | Win % |
|---|---|---|
Martin Heinrich INCUMBENT | 88% | |
Nella Domenici | 12% |
View the archived 2024 forecast
Chance of winning New Mexico Senate over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About New Mexico
Cook PVI
D+3.0
Last Winner
Democrat
14 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 – 4 | 600 LV | Victory Insights | 50.2%Heinrich 48.5%Domenici | +2 Heinrich |
| Oct 25 – 27 | 749 LV | Rasmussen Reports/Am... | 50.0%Heinrich 41.0%Domenici | +9 Heinrich |
| Oct 11 – 19 | 1,024 LV | Research and Polling... | 51.0%Heinrich 40.0%Domenici | +11 Heinrich |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
| Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Martin Heinrich | $1,496,071 | $7,789,358 | $9,934,439 | October 16, 2024 | |
Nella Domenici | $171,820 | $2,042,599 | $5,693,679 | October 16, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$1,496,071
Raised
$7,789,358
Spent
$9,934,439
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$171,820
Raised
$2,042,599
Spent
$5,693,679
Report
Date
October 16, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for New Mexico. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
| 2020 New Mexico Senate | Vote % | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|
Ben Ray Luján | 51.73% | 474,483 |
Mark V. Ronchetti | 45.62% | 418,483 |
Bob Walsh | 2.65% | 24,271 |
2020 New Mexico Senate
Ben Ray Luján
Vote %
51.73%
Total Votes
474,483
2020 New Mexico Senate
Mark V. Ronchetti
Vote %
45.62%
Total Votes
418,483
2020 New Mexico Senate
Bob Walsh
Vote %
2.65%
Total Votes
24,271
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.
