Candidate | Party | Win % |
---|---|---|
Bob Casey INCUMBENT | 78% | |
Dave McCormick | 22% |
Chance of winning Pennsylvania Senate over time
Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.
About Pennsylvania
Cook PVI
R+2.0
Last Winner
Democrat
24 polls
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jun 14 – 19 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 47.1%Casey 40.9%McCormick | +6 Casey |
Jun 4 – 7 | 1,015 LV | Marist College Poll | 52.0%Casey 46.0%McCormick | +6 Casey |
May 31 – Jun 1 | 923 LV | Florida Atlantic Uni... | 48.0%Casey 40.0%McCormick | +8 Casey |
May 7 – 14 | 730 LV | BSG/GS Strategy Grou... | 49.0%Casey 41.0%McCormick | +8 Casey |
Apr 29 – May 10 | 1,023 LV | Siena College Poll/N... | 46.0%Casey 41.0%McCormick | +5 Casey |
Apr 25 – May 1 | 1,398 LV | Fabrizio Ward/Impact... | 48.0%Casey 44.0%McCormick | +4 Casey |
Apr 26 – 30 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 46.2%Casey 42.1%McCormick | +4 Casey |
Apr 20 – 26 | 1,306 RV | YouGov/CBS News | 46.0%Casey 39.0%McCormick | +7 Casey |
Apr 16 – 26 | 417 RV | Muhlenberg College | 45.0%Casey 41.0%McCormick | +4 Casey |
Mar 30 – Apr 4 | 600 RV | Independent Center/B... | 45.0%Casey 38.0%McCormick | +7 Casey |
+ More Polls
Campaign Finance
An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.
Candidate | Cash on hand | Raised | Spent | Report | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bob Casey | $11,886,480 | $12,504,130 | $8,246,511 | April 3, 2024 | |
Dave McCormick | $6,414,764 | $6,869,677 | $4,662,239 | April 3, 2024 |
Candidate
Cash on hand
$11,886,480
Raised
$12,504,130
Spent
$8,246,511
Report
Date
April 3, 2024
Candidate
Cash on hand
$6,414,764
Raised
$6,869,677
Spent
$4,662,239
Report
Date
April 3, 2024
Past Elections
This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for Pennsylvania. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.
2022 Pennsylvania Senate | Vote % | Total Votes |
---|---|---|
John Fetterman | 51.25% | 2,751,012 |
Mehmet Oz | 46.33% | 2,487,260 |
Erik Gerhardt | 1.36% | 72,887 |
Richard L. Weiss | 0.57% | 30,434 |
2022 Pennsylvania Senate
John Fetterman
Vote %
51.25%
Total Votes
2,751,012
2022 Pennsylvania Senate
Mehmet Oz
Vote %
46.33%
Total Votes
2,487,260
2022 Pennsylvania Senate
Erik Gerhardt
Vote %
1.36%
Total Votes
72,887
2022 Pennsylvania Senate
Richard L. Weiss
Vote %
0.57%
Total Votes
30,434
+ More Elections
Featured Races
Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.
Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.