Pennsylvania Senate Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Incumbent three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is running for re-election in the key presidential battleground of Pennsylvania. A political powerhouse, Casey has won six consecutive statewide elections in the Keystone State since 1996, starting with his first election as State Auditor. He was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by 18%—the largest margin ever for a Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania's history. Casey was re-elected by 9% in 2012, and again in 2018 by 13%. Notably, the 2012 election—his last campaign during a presidential election year—is the only statewide election Casey has not won by a double-digit margin, although he still outperformed Barack Obama by 3.6%. Casey will face businessman David McCormick, who narrowly lost the Republican nomination to Dr. Oz by less than 0.5% in 2022. Pennsylvania is considered a purple state at the federal level; Joe Biden carried it by 1.2% after Trump won the state by 0.7% in 2016. Democrats currently control both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of its U.S. House congressional delegation, and the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most early polls show Casey to hold an advantage.