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West Virginia Senate Forecast safe gop POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Monday, July 1 at 4:08 PM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Jim Justice has a >99% chance of winning West Virginia.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, first elected in 2010, initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term, setting the stage for one of the easiest flips for the Republican Party in recent memory. West Virginia has supported the Republican nominee by double digits in every presidential election since the start of the 21st century, with Donald Trump winning the state by about 40 points in both 2016 and 2020. Even with Manchin potentially running, the narrow margin by which he was re-elected in 2018—amidst a national Democratic wave—and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot in 2024 had already made Republicans favorites to win the seat. After Republican Governor Jim Justice announced his candidacy in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage over Manchin. With Manchin’s retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control.

Candidate	Party	Win %
Jim Justice		>99%
Glenn Elliott		<1%

Chance of winning West Virginia Senate over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About West Virginia

Cook PVI

R+22.0

Last Winner

Democrat

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate	Cash on hand	Raised	Spent	Report	Date
Jim Justice	$931,451	$2,280,549	$2,024,750	APRIL QUARTERLY	April 24, 2024
Glenn Elliott	$65,336	$125,308	$60,072	APRIL QUARTERLY	April 24, 2024

Candidate

Jim Justice

Cash on hand

$931,451

Raised

$2,280,549

Spent

$2,024,750

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

April 24, 2024

Candidate

Glenn Elliott

Cash on hand

$65,336

Raised

$125,308

Spent

$60,072

Report

APRIL QUARTERLY

Date

April 24, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for West Virginia. By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.