West Virginia Senate Forecast safe gop POTENTIAL FLIP

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, first elected in 2010, initially filed paperwork for the 2024 election but announced in November 2023 that he will not seek a third full term, setting the stage for one of the easiest flips for the Republican Party in recent memory. West Virginia has supported the Republican nominee by double digits in every presidential election since the start of the 21st century, with Donald Trump winning the state by about 40 points in both 2016 and 2020. Even with Manchin potentially running, the narrow margin by which he was re-elected in 2018—amidst a national Democratic wave—and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot in 2024 had already made Republicans favorites to win the seat. After Republican Governor Jim Justice announced his candidacy in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage over Manchin. With Manchin’s retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control.