A bit of background... In the 2024 Montana Senate race, the incumbent Democrat, Jon Tester, is expected to face a formidable challenge from a well-funded Republican opponent. Analysts expect a close contest. Montana's predominantly rural and conservative electorate presents a unique set of challenges for both candidates. The ability to appeal to independent voters and mobilize key constituencies will be crucial factors in determining the outcome of this race.

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).