Montana Senate polls, Tester vs. Sheehy
Tester has a 0.2% lead based on 6 polls.
Apr 30, 2024
Tester
46.1%
Sheehy
45.9%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
A bit of background... In the 2024 Montana Senate race, the incumbent Democrat, Jon Tester, is expected to face a formidable challenge from a well-funded Republican opponent. Analysts expect a close contest. Montana's predominantly rural and conservative electorate presents a unique set of challenges for both candidates. The ability to appeal to independent voters and mobilize key constituencies will be crucial factors in determining the outcome of this race.
6 polls
Latest Poll: Mon, Apr 29, 12:11 PM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 – 30 | 503 LV | J.L. Partners | 48.0%Sheehy 45.0%Tester | +3 Sheehy |
| Feb 27 – Mar 3 | 1,000 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 44.0%Tester 42.4%Sheehy | +2 Tester |
| Feb 13 – 16 | 700 Adults | SurveyUSA | 50.0%Tester 40.0%Sheehy | +10 Tester |
| Oct 2 – 5 | 447 Adults | Emerson College Poll... | 39.0%Tester 35.0%Sheehy | +4 Tester |
| Oct 2 – 5 | 447 RV | Emerson | 39.0%Tester 35.0%Sheehy | +4 Tester |
| Aug 13 – 18 | 741 LV | J.L. Partners | 46.0%Sheehy 43.0%Tester | +3 Sheehy |
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Tim Sheehy
Tim Sheehy is a former United States Navy SEAL currently running for the Republican nomination for Senate in Montana. After leaving the Navy Sheehy co-founded Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting company and Ascent Vision Technologies, an imaging system developer, both based in Montana. Sheehy is also active in supporting veterans' issues.
Jon Tester
Jon Tester is an American politician serving as the senior United States Senator from Montana, a position he has held since 2007. Tester is a member of the Democratic Party. Before his career in the Senate, he was a music teacher and farmer. He also served in the Montana Senate where he became Senate President. Tester's political stance tends to be moderate to liberal, with advocacy for issues including veterans' rights and financial reform.
