Biden vs. Trump polls
Trump has a 3.3% lead based on 825 polls.
Dec 12, 2024
Trump
46.6%
Biden
43.3%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Rep. +3.3
Original Avg.
Rep. +3.3
Adjusted Avg.
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A bit of background... The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
825 polls
Latest Poll: Wed, Nov 27, 8:05 AM EST
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20 – 23 | 1,115 RV | YouGov/Yahoo News | 45.0%Trump 45.0%Biden | TIE |
| Jul 20 – 22 | 1,257 RV | Quinnipiac Universit... | 48.0%Trump 45.0%Biden | +3 Trump |
| Jul 20 – 22 | 982 LV | Echelon Insights | 49.0%Biden 48.0%Trump | +1 Biden |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.
Joe Biden
Joe Biden is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the 46th President of the United States. Before his presidency, he served as Vice President under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017. Prior to that, he represented the state of Delaware in the U.S. Senate, holding that seat from 1973 to 2009. Biden's extensive political career has focused on issues such as foreign policy, criminal justice, and civil rights.
