Biden vs. Trump polls

Trump has a 0.6% lead based on 655 polls.

Apr 13, 2024

Photograph of Trump

Trump

44.8%
Photograph of Biden

Biden

44.2%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Rep. +0.6

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Rep. +0.6

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

A bit of background... The 2024 national popular vote polling average between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is a significant indicator of the political landscape as the United States gears up for another presidential election. This matchup is a rematch of the 2020 Presidential Election, with Biden seeking to continue his leadership and Trump aiming to reclaim the presidency. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, flipping key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

655 polls

Latest Poll: Fri, Apr 12, 2:05 PM EDT

Mar 25 – Apr 11

995 LV

Activote
52.9%

Trump

47.1%

Biden

+6 Trump

Apr 6 – 10

833 RV

Ipsos
41.0%

Biden

37.0%

Trump

+4 Biden

Apr 6 – 8

6,236 RV

Morning Consult
44.0%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

+1 Trump

Apr 4 – 6

1,265 RV

I&I/TIPP
43.0%

Biden

40.0%

Trump

+3 Biden

Apr 3 – 5

4,000 RV

Morning Consult
43.0%

Trump

43.0%

Biden

TIE

Apr 2 – 5

1,679 LV

RMG Research
44.0%

Biden

43.0%

Trump

+1 Biden

Apr 3 – 4

1,438 RV

Emerson College Poll...
46.4%

Trump

45.4%

Biden

+1 Trump

Apr 1 – 3

1,099 LV

Rasmussen Reports
49.0%

Trump

41.0%

Biden

+8 Trump

Mar 30 – Apr 1

6,018 RV

Morning Consult
44.0%

Biden

42.0%

Trump

+2 Biden

Mar 28 – 30

1,200 LV

Data For Progress
47.0%

Biden

46.0%

Trump

+1 Biden

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).