Generic ballot polls
Democrats have a 2.2% lead based on 416 polls.
May 15, 2024
Democrat
43.8%
Republican
41.6%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Dem. +2.2
Original Avg.
Dem. +2.2
Adjusted Avg.
Reset
A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.
416 polls
Latest Poll: Tue, May 14, 9:38 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6 – 8 | 1,597 RV | Economist/YouGov | 44.0%Democrat 42.0%Republican | +2 Democrat |
| Apr 29 – May 1 | 1,479 RV | Economist/YouGov | 44.0%Democrat 41.0%Republican | +3 Democrat |
| Apr 27 – 29 | 851 LV | FAU/Mainstreet Resea... | 43.5%Democrat 40.1%Republican | +3 Democrat |
| Apr 22 – 24 | 1,468 RV | Economist/YouGov | 44.0%Democrat 42.0%Republican | +2 Democrat |
| Apr 17 – 18 | 1,000 RV | NewsNation/Decision ... | 43.8%Republican 41.6%Democrat | +2 Republican |
| Apr 17 – 18 | 1,308 RV | Emerson College Poll... | 44.8%Republican 44.6%Democrat | +0 Republican |
| Apr 15 – 17 | 1,355 RV | Economist/YouGov | 43.0%Democrat 43.0%Republican | TIE |
| Apr 13 – 17 | 1,000 RV | NBC News/Hart Resear... | 47.0%Republican 46.0%Democrat | +1 Republican |
| Apr 11 – 17 | 1,000 LV | McLaughlin & Associa... | 47.0%Republican 43.0%Democrat | +4 Republican |
| Apr 12 – 16 | 1,170 RV | Yahoo News/YouGov | 45.0%Democrat 42.0%Republican | +3 Democrat |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
