Generic ballot polls
Republicans have a 0.4% lead based on 487 polls.
Jul 27, 2024
Republican
43.8%
Democrat
43.4%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Rep. +0.4
Original Avg.
Rep. +0.4
Adjusted Avg.
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A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.
487 polls
Latest Poll: Fri, Jul 26, 3:57 PM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24 – 26 | 1,000 RV | Fabrizio Lee/GBAO/Wa... | 48.0%Republican 46.0%Democrat | +2 Republican |
| Jul 23 – 26 | 3,013 RV | HarrisX/Forbes | 41.0%Democrat 41.0%Republican | TIE |
| Jul 23 – 24 | 1,155 LV | YouGov/The Times of ... | 44.0%Democrat 44.0%Republican | TIE |
| Jul 22 – 24 | 1,434 RV | YouGov/The Economist | 46.0%Democrat 44.0%Republican | +2 Democrat |
| Jul 20 – 23 | 1,173 RV | YouGov/Yahoo News | 45.0%Democrat 42.0%Republican | +3 Democrat |
| Jul 20 – 22 | 982 LV | Echelon Insights | 48.0%Democrat 47.0%Republican | +1 Democrat |
| Jul 20 – 22 | 2,753 RV | HarrisX/Forbes | 44.0%Republican 39.0%Democrat | +5 Republican |
| Jul 20 – 22 | 780 RV | Florida Atlantic Uni... | 43.5%Democrat 43.0%Republican | +1 Democrat |
| Jul 15 – 22 | 1,030 RV | The Bullfinch Group/... | 36.0%Democrat 36.0%Republican | TIE |
| Jul 18 – 20 | 800 LV | OnMessage Inc./ Sena... | 46.0%Republican 43.0%Democrat | +3 Republican |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
