Generic ballot polls
Democrats have a 0.1% lead based on 557 polls.
Oct 18, 2024
Democrat
47.0%
Republican
46.9%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Dem. +0.1
Original Avg.
Dem. +0.1
Adjusted Avg.
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A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.
557 polls
Latest Poll: Fri, Oct 18, 10:45 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 – 17 | 1,000 LV | Emerson College Poll... | 47.6%Democrat 45.3%Republican | +2 Democrat |
| Oct 15 – 17 | 800 LV | OnMessage Inc./ Sena... | 46.0%Republican 42.0%Democrat | +4 Republican |
| Oct 13 – 16 | 1,317 LV | YouGov/The Economist | 47.0%Democrat 46.0%Republican | +1 Democrat |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
