Generic ballot polls

Democrats have a 1.4% lead based on 401 polls.

Apr 13, 2024

Democrat

44.5%

Republican

43.1%

Estimate

95% of polls fall in this range

Polling average unskewer

Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.

Dem. +1.4

Original Avg.

Rep. BiasNo BiasDem. Bias

Dem. +1.4

Adjusted Avg.

Reset

A bit of background... The generic ballot serves as a crucial predictor for the battle over control of the US House of Representatives, offering a snapshot of national party preference between Republicans and Democrats. Following a narrow Republican majority win in the 2022 midterms, this gauge provides insights into potential shifts in legislative power. It reflects the natural political environment of the nation as a whole, without considering specific candidates or politicians.

401 polls

Latest Poll: Fri, Apr 12, 2:05 PM EDT

Apr 7 – 10

1,583 RV

Economist/YouGov
43.0%

Democrat

43.0%

Republican

TIE

Apr 3 – 4

1,438 RV

Emerson College Poll...
45.6%

Democrat

45.0%

Republican

+1 Democrat

Mar 31 – Apr 3

1,604 RV

Economist/YouGov
44.0%

Democrat

41.0%

Republican

+3 Democrat

Mar 28 – 30

1,200 LV

Data For Progress
46.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

+2 Democrat

Mar 26 – 29

1,000 RV

UpONE Insights/BSG
42.0%

Democrat

42.0%

Republican

TIE

Mar 25 – 27

1,414 RV

Economist/YouGov
44.0%

Democrat

42.0%

Republican

+2 Democrat

Mar 19 – 22

1,006 RV

Echelon Insights
49.0%

Democrat

46.0%

Republican

+3 Democrat

Mar 17 – 20

1,505 RV

Economist/YouGov
44.0%

Democrat

43.0%

Republican

+1 Democrat

Mar 16 – 18

941 LV

Mainstreet Research/...
45.0%

Democrat

44.0%

Republican

+1 Democrat

Mar 12 – 16

2,145 LV

Noble Predictive Ins...
45.0%

Republican

43.0%

Democrat

+2 Republican

+ More Polls

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).