Harris vs. Trump polls
Trump has a 2.7% lead based on 52 polls.
Jul 7, 2024
Trump
45.3%
Harris
42.6%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Rep. +2.7
Original Avg.
Rep. +2.7
Adjusted Avg.
Reset
52 polls
Latest Poll: Sun, Jul 7, 11:01 AM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2 – 3 | 892 RV | Ipsos/Reuters | 43.0%Trump 42.0%Harris | +1 Trump |
| Jul 1 – 3 | 1,070 RV | Ipsos/Reuters | 43.0%Trump 42.0%Harris | +1 Trump |
| Jun 29 – Jul 2 | 1,176 RV | YouGov/Yahoo News | 47.0%Trump 45.0%Harris | +2 Trump |
| Jun 29 – Jul 1 | 1,500 RV | HarrisX/Forbes | 53.0%Trump 47.0%Harris | +6 Trump |
| Jun 29 – 30 | 1,045 RV | SSRS/CNN | 47.0%Trump 45.0%Harris | +2 Trump |
| Jun 29 | 1,011 LV | Data for Progress | 48.0%Trump 45.0%Harris | +3 Trump |
| Jun 19 – 25 | 1,000 LV | McLaughlin & Associa... | 47.0%Trump 42.0%Harris | +5 Trump |
| Jun 19 – 25 | 1,000 LV | McLaughlin & Associa... | 47.0%Trump 40.0%Harris | +7 Trump |
| May 10 – 16 | 1,000 LV | McLaughlin & Associa... | 48.0%Trump 41.0%Harris | +7 Trump |
| Apr 11 – 17 | 1,000 LV | McLaughlin & Associa... | 49.0%Trump 43.0%Harris | +6 Trump |
+ More Polls
The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Haris is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party who is serving as the Vice President of the United States. Before her vice presidency, she served as Senator for the state of California. Prior to that, she was the Attorney General for California.
