Newsom vs. Trump polls
Trump has a 4.4% lead based on 20 polls.
Sep 19, 2024
Trump
45.9%
Newsom
41.5%
Estimate
95% of polls fall in this range
Polling average unskewer
Our 'unskewer' is a way to adjust for whatever bias you think is reflected in the polls. For example, if a Republican candidate is at 44% and a Democrat is at 42%, slide our 'unskewer' 2 point to the left and it will reduce the Republican candidate's margin by 2 points.
Rep. +4.4
Original Avg.
Rep. +4.4
Adjusted Avg.
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20 polls
Latest Poll: Wed, Sep 18, 3:26 PM EDT
Field Dates | Sample | Pollster | Results | Topline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22 – 23 | 4,001 RV | Morning Consult | 47.0%Trump 39.0%Newsom | +8 Trump |
| Jul 20 – 23 | 1,176 RV | YouGov/Yahoo News | 46.0%Trump 40.0%Newsom | +6 Trump |
| Jul 20 – 22 | 982 LV | Echelon Insights | 49.0%Trump 43.0%Newsom | +6 Trump |
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The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).
Donald Trump
Donald Trump is an American businessman, television personality, and politician who served as the 45th President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. Before his presidency, Trump was known for his real estate empire and for hosting the reality TV show, "The Apprentice." His presidency was notable for its non-traditional, often controversial, approach and prioritization of America-first policies. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives, first in 2019 and then in 2021, but was acquitted both times by the Senate.
