A bit of background... In the 2024 Ohio Senate race, the incumbent senator, Sherrod Brown, faces a strong challenge from Trump-aligned Bernie Moreno. Polling averages are expected to indicate a tight contest, even as Ohio tends to be a solidly Republican state at the presidential level. Ohio's mix of urban and rural voters, along with its status as a bellwether state, makes it a key battleground in the race for control of the Senate. The ability to appeal to white working-class voters and mobilize key constituencies will be crucial factors in determining the outcome of this race.

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).