A bit of background... The 2024 Texas Senate race is a test of the state's shifting political landscape. Analysts expected the Republican incumbent Ted Cruz to be a slight favorite but the Democratic candidate Colin Allred to be close behind and within striking distance. Texas's rapidly growing and increasingly diverse electorate presents challenges and opportunities for the candidates. The ability to mobilize key constituencies and appeal to a broad range of voters will be crucial factors in determining the outcome of this race.

The polling bias for the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections is based on analysis from the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) comparing actual results to national polls. For the 2018 and 2022 elections, bias was measured by comparing FiveThirtyEight's Generic Ballot polling average with the adjusted US House National Popular vote, using data from the UVA Center for Politics (2018) and DecisionDeskHQ (2022).