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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

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This is the archived 2024 forecast, click here to view the latest forecast

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Last Updated: Thursday, July 18 at 10:39 AM EDT

Our model currently predicts that Dave Min has a 83% chance of winning .

CandidatePartyWin %

Dave Min

83%

Scott Baugh

17%

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

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Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Scott Baugh

Cash on hand

$1,903,809

Raised

$1,782,473

Spent

$492,776

Date

March 31, 2024

Candidate

Dave Min

Cash on hand

$424,839

Raised

$2,056,744

Spent

$1,809,999

Date

March 31, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 House 47Vote %Total Votes

Katie Porter

51.72%

137,374

Scott Baugh

48.28%

128,261

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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