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Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results.

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undefined undefined Forecast tossup

Last Updated: Tuesday, November 5 at 12:18 PM EST

Our model currently predicts that Dave Min has a 50% chance of winning .

CandidatePartyWin %

Dave Min

50%

Scott Baugh

50%

View the archived 2024 forecast

Chance of winning undefined over time

Our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with "fundamental" factors like incumbency and each district's partisan lean. Below is a chart over time of our best estimate of the most likely number of House seats each party will win, surrounded by a range of other plausible outcomes.

About undefined

Campaign Finance

An overview of each candidate's financial activity during the campaign, showing how much money they raised and spent. Campaign finance data can be a powerful indicator of a candidate's support base and overall campaign health.

Candidate

Scott Baugh

Cash on hand

$1,006,486

Raised

$2,791,679

Spent

$3,138,443

Date

October 16, 2024

Candidate

Dave Min

Cash on hand

$515,179

Raised

$5,355,183

Spent

$5,606,552

Date

October 16, 2024

Past Elections

This section displays the previous election results in previous elections for . By examining past election results, we can assess the historical performance and voter preferences in the state. This information is crucial for understanding trends and potential shifts in voter support.

2022 House 47Vote %Total Votes

Katie Porter

51.72%

137,374

Scott Baugh

48.28%

128,261

+ More Elections

Featured Races

Explore the latest probabilities in the most competitive presidential, Senate, and House races by selecting any of the races listed below.

Interested to see how the DDHQ/The Hill forecast works? Read our methodology statement.

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